9E 4731 · JFK → ROC

departs 2:12 PM ET · arrives 3:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ROC that day

↑ 2pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

ROC (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4731 · JFK → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?