9E 4891 · ORF → JFK

departs 5:07 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4891 · ORF → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?