9E 4893 · ORF → LGA

departs 2:32 PM ET · arrives 3:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±20 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LGA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4893 · ORF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?