9E 4915 · JFK → ORD

departs 3:18 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

ORD (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4915 · JFK → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?