9E 5039 · SRQ → JFK

departs 12:49 PM ET · arrives 3:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ SRQ is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5039 · SRQ → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?