9E 5244 · LGA → RDU

took off 6:39 AM ET · expected to land 7:52 AM ET (scheduled 6:36 AM ET → 8:13 AM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling967 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.53 in

RDU (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5244 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?