Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 1233 · LAX → BNA

departs 10:52 AM PT · arrives 4:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1233 · LAX → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?