Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1424 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 1424 · FLL → ORD

departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 4:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from FLL are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1424 · FLL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?