Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1936 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 1936 · ORD → EWR

departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 4:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±16 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
24%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1936 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?