Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2074 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

AA 2074 · ORD → BOS

departs 1:35 PM CT · arrives 5:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±5 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BOS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling333 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2074 · ORD → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?