Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2438 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 2438 · DFW → SAN

departs 1:17 PM CT · arrives 2:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2438 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?