Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2542 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

AA 2542 · DFW → PHL

departs 4:56 PM CT · arrives 9:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2542 · DFW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?