AA 274 · LAX → JFK

departs 12:39 PM PT · arrives 9:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 274 · LAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?