Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2774 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 2774 · ORD → LGA

departs 12:21 PM CT · arrives 3:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±21 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2774 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?