Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2847 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 2847 · LGA → DFW

departs 12:59 PM ET · arrives 3:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.38 in

DFW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2847 · LGA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?