Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3024 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 3024 · ORD → LGA

departs 10:08 AM CT · arrives 1:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3024 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?