Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3046 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 3046 · ORD → SEA

departs 1:18 PM CT · arrives 3:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±7 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3046 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?