Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3059 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 3059 · ORD → SAT

departs 10:29 AM CT · arrives 1:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3059 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?