Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3128 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

AA 3128 · LGA → ORD

departs 2:08 PM ET · arrives 3:34 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±7 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ ORD usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.51 in

ORD (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3128 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?