Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 860 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

AA 860 · JFK → DFW

departs 2:32 PM ET · arrives 5:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±11 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ 2pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

DFW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 860 · JFK → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?