Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 867 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

AA 867 · STT → JFK

departs 3:29 PM AST · arrives 6:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±6 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ STT usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 867 · STT → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?