Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1061
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1061 · JFK → JAX
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 4:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 11/11 10%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 32%
Sat 11/14 19%
Sun 11/15 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
2pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.22 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.