Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1166 · SAT → JFK
departs 1:20 PM CT · arrives 6:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 11/10 12%
Wed 11/11 10%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 32%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.