Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1225 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

DL 1225 · DTW → RSW

departs 2:28 PM ET · arrives 5:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±6 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DTW that day

↑ 2pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Arrivals into RSW at that hour are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.20 in

RSW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1225 · DTW → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?