Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1391
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1391 · DTW → PHL
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 11/11 10%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 20%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 34%
Mon 11/16 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.