Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1419 · JFK → FLL
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 32%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±17 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at JFK that day
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.43 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.