Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1453
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1453 · LGA → RDU
departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 4:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 11/10 18%
Wed 11/11 11%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 44%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.17 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.