Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1521 · SNA → ATL
departs 11:30 AM PT · arrives 6:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 23%
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.