Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1557
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1557 · DTW → BNA
departs 12:25 PM ET · arrives 1:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 11/10 11%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 15%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
12pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.13 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.