Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1575
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1575 · ATL → JFK
departs 1:55 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 11/11 7%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 29%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at JFK that day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.