Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1787 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

DL 1787 · DTW → IAD

departs 3:08 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.18 in

IAD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1787 · DTW → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?