Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1829 · SDQ → JFK
departs 3:01 PM AST · arrives 5:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 11/11 13%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 30%
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave SDQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SDQ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.