DL 1857 · DTW → SNA

took off 8:30 AM ET · expected to land 9:33 AM PT (scheduled 8:22 AM ET → 10:06 AM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SNA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DTW that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

SNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1857 · DTW → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?