Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1877
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1877 · SJU → JFK
departs 2:11 PM AT · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 11/10 13%
Wed 11/11 8%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 21%
Sat 11/14 15%
Sun 11/15 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JFK that day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.