Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1949 · ATL → MBJ
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM EST
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 12%
Sat 11/14 13%
Sun 11/15 18%
Mon 11/16 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MBJ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MBJ?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MBJ (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.