Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2011 · AUS → ATL
departs 1:31 PM CT · arrives 5:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 11/10 12%
Wed 11/11 7%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 12%
Sat 11/14 15%
Sun 11/15 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.