Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2093
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2093 · JFK → TPA
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 5:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 11/11 6%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 34%
Sat 11/14 17%
Sun 11/15 23%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±14 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
2pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.22 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.