Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2195
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2195 · TPA → LGA
departs 2:45 PM ET · arrives 5:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Wed 11/11 10%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 49%
Sat 11/14 29%
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±29 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.