Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2226 · LGA → ORD
departs 2:45 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 11/11 26%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 47%
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15 39%
Mon 11/16 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.29 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.