Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2405 · LGA → MSY
departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 5:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 11/11 17%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 50%
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
71%
chance · ±15 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
71%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.