Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2412 · SRQ → LGA
departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 4:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 11/10 22%
Wed 11/11 12%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 49%
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±21 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.