Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
DL 2431 · DTW → DEN
departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 5:27 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 18%
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 23%
Tue 11/17 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.