Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
DL 2458 · SAT → DTW
departs 3:02 PM CT · arrives 7:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 15%
Sat 11/14 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.