Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2477
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2477 · SLC → YYZ
departs 10:51 AM MT · arrives 4:53 PM EST
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 9%
Sun 11/15 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at YYZ that day
↑
SLC is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
YYZ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.