Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2812 · MCO → LGA
departs 1:53 PM ET · arrives 4:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Wed 11/11 12%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 51%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±20 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.