Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2930
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2930 · LGA → IAH
departs 1:50 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 11/11 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 36%
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.