Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 3157 · ATL → MSY
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 2:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 11/10 8%
Wed 11/11 6%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 15%
Sat 11/14 16%
Sun 11/15 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.