Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 438 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

DL 438 · SEA → BOS

departs 1:45 PM PT · arrives 10:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 333 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling333 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 438 · SEA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?