OO 1007 · SBN → LWB

departs 6:47 PM ET · arrives 8:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LWB more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LWB?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SBN that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LWB

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ LWB usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

LWB (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 1007 · SBN → LWB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LWB?