Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 3404 · YYJ → SEA
departs 6:24 PM MST · arrives 6:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 11/11 18%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 27%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave YYJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
5pm departures from YYJ are usually not late
Weather at each end
YYJ (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.